In July, I wrote about the news of some members of Gen Z coming back to church. Gen Z is still less religious as a generation than prior generations, but there are early signs of a shift. Given the much-publicized downward trends in church attendance over the past two decades, this is welcome news. As a result, some people are wondering if these are signs of revival.
However, the truth is if you have to ask if there’s a revival, there’s not a revival. In other words, if there were a revival, you’d know.
Ryan Burge, a data scientist, professor and author of The Vanishing Church (Brazos), summed it up November 14 on X:
“Certainly [there’s] no evidence of any kind of revival in terms of religious belief and religious attendance. Just the opposite, actually. On affiliation, the nones have stopped rising. Christianity is holding steady. But that’s stasis—not revival.”
To be clear, I want there to be a revival, and I hope you do as well. That said, we can’t want it so much that we declare it before it is here. We have to be honest about where we are. Rather than simply declaring we are in revival, we should be inspired to work toward it. That starts with understanding the signs of revival.
Signs of Revival
“Mercy drops round us are falling, but for the showers we plead.”
These words come from the hymn “There Shall Be Showers of Blessing” written by D.W. Whittle in 1883 while he was working as an evangelist with D.L. Moody. It recognizes the activity of God in the present while yearning to see more. That’s an apt description of where we are today.
So, what will it look like if revival comes and mercy drops turn into a downpour? What are some signs of revival?
1. Conversions Increase.
Revival changes Christians, and as a result reaches the lost. Over time there is a measurable increase in conversion. Think of the First and Second Great Awakenings, the Welsh Revival, the East African Revival, Asbury renewals, etc. In all of those cases, the marker of revival is conversion—a spike that sustains.
We’d expect to see:
• A multiplication of conversions—2–10x increase of prior numbers.
• Conversion growth that continues beyond just an event.
• An increase in baptisms. For example, SBC tracks baptisms well, so we can see trends. The only time the SBC has ever seen over 400,000 baptisms for five consecutive years was 1971–1975. The peak number in its history was 1972 (over 445,000), and that year and the years noted saw the greatest number and percentage of youth baptisms (over 137,000 in 1972). Those were the years the Jesus Movement was sweeping across America.
We have not yet witnessed this kind of growth today.
2. Returns to Faith Are Recognized.
Revival means a renewal of faith for backsliding Christians. You see more believers broken over their sin and hungry to grow. You see more active attendance in church as well.
So far, we’ve seen a pause in the rise of the “nones.” For revival, we would need to see a significant drop in the number of nones, an increase in church attendance frequency, and other gauges of increased involvement. We may yet see that, but that’s not a current reality.
Gallup reports: “Fewer than half of Americans now say religion is an important part of their daily lives, a 17-percentage-point drop since 2015, ranking among the largest declines in the world.”
In 2015, 66% of Americans said religion was essential to their daily life (I know, religion, not just Christianity). That’s down to 49% today.
3. Communities Are Impacted.
Revival impacts communities in significant ways. When you look at the Welsh Revival, East African Revival, and early Methodist movements, there were widespread reports of social change—reductions in crime, brothels, drinking, etc. We are not seeing that yet.
4. Leadership Pipelines Grow.
Seminary enrollment spiked after the Jesus Movement for some denominations. Talbot, where I am a professor and dean, and a few other seminaries are experiencing growth, but our growth is not revival-level and several seminaries are closing.
5. Evangelism Increases.
In revival, evangelism (and missions) takes off. Churches report more gospel conversations and witness. There are indicators of sustained change. Revivals endure—not forever, but for a season.
6. Church Planting Accelerates.
One of the themes of this issue is church multiplication, but our data (thus far) shows that we have not moved the dial on church planting—which we often see in revival.
Exponential is working toward seeing 16% of churches involved in church planting. In its most recent study, the numbers did not move significantly.
To summarize, we know we are in a revival when we see persistent growth in conversion and baptism rates; increased church engagement in communities and in church planting efforts; and cultural change that lasts
Across history, the single most dependable revival indicator is a region-wide, multi-congregation increase in repentance, conversions and discipleship growth that exceeds both demographic trends and normal ministry cycles.
It’s not a single church growing; it’s a pattern across churches that outpaces population growth and historical averages.
Mercy Drops
There are encouraging signs—brush fires or mercy drops, to cite the hymn. There is a growing openness to faith. Barna has found the majority of Americans are spiritually open, with Gen Z teens reporting a “high” level of openness at 46%—the next highest is millennials with 35% reporting a high level of openness.
Reports of revival on campuses, including reports from the Gospel Coalition, and a number of events where thousands show up for services that include baptisms through the work of UniteUS—starting with 5,000 at Auburn University with 200 baptized, 8,000 at the University of Tennessee with 500 professions of faith, 300 baptized at Florida State, 260 at Alabama, and even stories of students being baptized in the back of pickup trucks at Georgia.
Additionally, Barna reports upturns in the percentage of U.S. adults who say, “I have made a personal commitment to follow Jesus that is still important in my life today”—66%, up from 54% in 2021 and 2022—and a slight uptick in church attendance this past year.
Preparing for Showers
Jonathan Edwards, who lived, led and labored in a season of great revival, gave us some of the most helpful writings on the subject. In Thoughts on the Revival of Religion in New England …, he wrote that movements of revival should be judged a posteriori, not a priori. That is, they should be judged by the fruit they produce:
“We are to observe the effect wrought; and if, upon examination of that, it be found to be agreeable to the word of God, we are bound to rest in it as God’s work; and be like to be rebuked for our arrogance, if we refuse so to do till God shall explain to us how he has brought this effect to pass, or why he has made use of such and such means in doing it.”
While we look for the fruit, we can work toward it. G. Campbell Morgan, who wrote about the Welsh Revival, observed that a sailor, no matter how skilled, cannot affect the strength or direction of the wind. But a skilled sailor knows how to set the sails. When God chooses to blow the wind of his Spirit, we should be ready. How do we set the sails? Stay on mission.
Over the past year, I talked to about 20,000 pastors and church leaders in various settings. They sense something is going on and want to be a part of it.
Judging solely by the discourse on the internet, you’d believe that the church is divided, obsessed with politics, and filled with heretics—ideas that aren’t totally unfounded. But in everyday reality, evangelicals are largely engaging the mission, sharing Christ on college campuses, and praying for God to move.
Whether or not we see a full-on revival in our lifetime, our call is to be faithful in prayer that the Spirit might move and diligent to fulfill the Great Commission. May the showers of blessing come soon.