Mission Shift: How a Declining global birth rate Will Shape Future Outreach

Leaders generally build strategic plans based on the opportunities and challenges their organizations are facing. While understanding present circumstances is essential, kingdom-building leaders should also be mindful of the future that God has planned. As you reflect on your church’s plans for 2025, I invite you to focus on this question: How is God working in the world?

One megatrend that has significant implications for the local church that needs to be considered is the decline of the global fertility rate and its impact on aging, immigration and religion. 

The Incredible Shrinking Birthrate

The most important number in the study of demographics is 2.1. That is the fertility rate (births per woman) a society needs to maintain its population. Countries with an average fertility rate of less than 2.1 will eventually shrink unless immigration exceeds their natural population decline.

Since 1950, the global fertility rate has dropped from 4.9 births per woman to 2.3. This is expected to further decline to 1.8 by the end of the century. The fertility rate of the United States is lower than the global average at 1.7 today, and it is projected to stay at this level through 2100.

_{United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Estimates 1950-2021 and Medium Fertility Variant 2022 – 2100, Online Edition.}

The Demographic Transition Model explains that declines in birth rates and death rates will occur as a society advances socially and economically. This shift is driven by changes from an agrarian economy to an industrial or post-industrial economy, which is accompanied by changing cultural norms regarding marriage, children, education and work.

While the declining birthrate affects a variety of cultural trends, here I’d like to focus on aging, immigration and religion, and provide some questions to consider as you prepare to serve your congregations, communities and the global body of Christ.

Aging

The combination of fewer children being born and an increasing life expectancy will result in a rapidly growing senior population. Today, there are three times as many youth (19 and younger) as there are seniors (65 and older) around the world. By the end of the century, the population of seniors will exceed 2.5 billion, outnumbering youth for the first time in human history.

_{United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Estimates 1950-2021 and Medium Fertility Variant 2022 – 2100, Online Edition.}