Mission Shift: How a Declining Global Birth Rate Will Shape Future Outreach 

Leaders generally build strategic plans based on the opportunities and challenges their organizations are facing. While understanding present circumstances is essential, kingdom-building leaders should also be mindful of the future that God has planned. As you reflect on your church’s plans for 2025, I invite you to focus on this question: How is God working in the world?

One megatrend that has significant implications for the local church that needs to be considered is the decline of the global fertility rate and its impact on aging, immigration and religion. 

The Incredible Shrinking Birthrate

The most important number in the study of demographics is 2.1. That is the fertility rate (births per woman) a society needs to maintain its population. Countries with an average fertility rate of less than 2.1 will eventually shrink unless immigration exceeds their natural population decline.

Since 1950, the global fertility rate has dropped from 4.9 births per woman to 2.3. This is expected to further decline to 1.8 by the end of the century. The fertility rate of the United States is lower than the global average at 1.7 today, and it is projected to stay at this level through 2100.

_{United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Estimates 1950-2021 and Medium Fertility Variant 2022 – 2100, Online Edition.}

The Demographic Transition Model explains that declines in birth rates and death rates will occur as a society advances socially and economically. This shift is driven by changes from an agrarian economy to an industrial or post-industrial economy, which is accompanied by changing cultural norms regarding marriage, children, education and work.

While the declining birthrate affects a variety of cultural trends, here I’d like to focus on aging, immigration and religion, and provide some questions to consider as you prepare to serve your congregations, communities and the global body of Christ.

Aging

The combination of fewer children being born and an increasing life expectancy will result in a rapidly growing senior population. Today, there are three times as many youth (19 and younger) as there are seniors (65 and older) around the world. By the end of the century, the population of seniors will exceed 2.5 billion, outnumbering youth for the first time in human history.

_{United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Estimates 1950-2021 and Medium Fertility Variant 2022 – 2100, Online Edition.}

Several countries are already grappling with the reality of an aging population. In Japan, seniors represent 30% of the total population compared to 16% for youth. In addition, Italy, Germany, Greece, Korea and much of southern Europe have populations today where seniors exceed youth.

The U.S. is headed in a similar direction. Today, there are 82 million youth in the U.S. compared to 64 million seniors. By 2100, the number of seniors in the U.S. is expected to grow to 120 million while the number of youth will decline to 74 million.

Appropriately caring for a large senior population will require societies to develop new economic, healthcare and social solutions. As Christ followers, we should be at the forefront of loving our elders. Consider these questions:

• What resources can our church provide to care for seniors in our community?

• How can we more effectively engage seniors in kingdom-building opportunities?

• How can we instill in the next generation a passion to serve seniors?

Immigration

As the fertility rate drops, countries will experience population decline. In 2022, China began to shrink for the first time, and projections indicate that its total population will decrease by 45%, from 1.4 billion today to 770 million in 2100. Although China’s leaders have been encouraging a new culture of marriage and childbearing, their efforts have not been successful.

In the U.S., the Census Bureau predicts that natural population growth will cease in 2038, when deaths will outnumber births. However, the nation’s total population will continue to grow due to policies resulting in about 900,000 legal immigrants annually. Taking immigration into account, the U.S. population is expected to peak at 369 million in 2080 and then begin to decline.

Facing the reality of a shrinking population, national leaders will need to leverage immigration policy to drive growth. Demographer William Frey of Brookings Metro says that “immigration is essential to the growth and vitality of a more diverse U.S. population.” The U.S. Census Bureau’s research affirms this perspective, projecting that by 2060 the percentage of whites in the U.S. will drop from 58% to 45%.

In light of increasing ethnic diversity from immigration policies, consider the following:

• What opportunities does the local church have to share the love and hope of Christ with immigrants?

• How can the local church provide avenues for immigrants—adults and children—to engage in discipleship and community?

• How can we foster a desire in the next generation to love those who come from a radically different culture?

Religion

By the end of the century, the regions with the highest fertility rates will be western Asia and northern Africa, where Islam is the predominant religion. In fact, the Pew Research Center reported in 2015 that the average fertility rate among Muslims was 3.1, compared to 2.7 for Christians, making it the first factor in Muslim growth in the Pew report.

Pew’s work concluded that “Islam will grow faster than any other major world religion,” and projected that the percentage of Muslims would grow from 23.2% to 29.7% by 2050, as compared to the percentage of Christians that will remain static at 31.4%. 

Based on Pew’s analysis, Islam could become the world’s largest religion by 2070. If we are to see the worldwide growth of Islam reversed, the gospel must be shared and the love of Christ demonstrated in the Middle East and North Africa.

• How can the local church increase awareness of challenges facing the global church and actively pray for the growth of the kingdom?

• What organizations can the church partner with to spread the gospel in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as other regions?

• How can we stoke an interest in the next generation to serve in missions in traditional or nontraditional ways?

As church leaders, you play a critical role in seeing the body of Christ grow and thrive. Drawing on Henry Blackaby’s wisdom, I encourage you to thoughtfully consider how God is working in the world and enthusiastically join him in that work.