Twenty-five years ago, Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book that would spend eight years on the New York Times Bestsellers list. That book, The Tipping Point, explores the moment when a concept or social trend gathers enough momentum to “tip” and spread rapidly through a population. Drawing on sociologist Everett Rogers’ Law of Diffusion of Innovation, Gladwell wrote that once something gains 16% acceptance within a community—due to the combined influence of pioneers and early adopters—it starts steering the majority and creates a culture shift.
Inspired by this idea, Exponential has sought to champion and facilitate church multiplication in its many diverse forms and expressions for the past decade. At its core, Exponential’s 16% Mission challenges us to reimagine church growth not in terms of addition but multiplication—disciples making disciples, and churches birthing churches that birth networks and movements. Multiplication is one of the most effective ways to reach unchurched and non-Christian communities. If the body of Christ works together, we can reach the point where 16% of churches are reproducing and multiplying other churches—and that will ignite a transformative wave of church planting across the nation and start a movement for Jesus within our lifetime.
This mission is focused on a bold vision: seeing approximately 57,600-plus U.S. churches—out of the approximately 360,000 nationwide—become Level 4 (reproducing) or Level 5 (multiplying) churches. When we reach this tipping point—and this will take all of us working together—it will signify a transformative shift in how success is measured within the American church. Even more exciting, completing the 16% Mission will result in tens of thousands of new churches and millions of new disciples who are actively living out Jesus’ mission where they work, live, learn and play.
Mercy Road Church in Carmel, Indiana, is a vivid example of how a single church can make a significant impact through multiplication. With a bold vision to make one million disciples for Christ in Indiana by 2050, Mercy Road has planted over 30 churches in just eight years, and raised $500,000 to further kingdom-building efforts through the Multiply Indiana initiative. These milestones not only showcase the power of reproducing churches, but are one of many inspiring examples for how leaders and churches can transcend addition-based growth models and move toward Level 5 multiplication.
The Resilient Church
To map progress on the 16% Mission, we developed a framework that tracks five levels of churches on a multiplication continuum.
The Five Levels of Multiplication
Level 1: Subtracting—Churches characterized by subtraction, scarcity and survival. They experience some combination of declining attendance, staffing, income and conversions. Without a turnaround, Level 1 churches eventually close.
Level 2: Plateauing—Churches that are plateaued and looking for the next catalyst to spark a season of growth. These churches often experience a combination of stagnant attendance and minimal changes in generosity, conversions and ministry impact from year to year. These churches may see temporary ups and downs, but their overall trend is flat.
Level 3: Adding—Churches characterized by growth and expansion of impact. They have a strong growth culture with some combination of an increase in the “4 Bs” of church metrics: budgets, buildings, bottoms in seats, and big-capacity leaders. Leadership development and conquering the next growth barriers are often key priorities in these churches through the next sermon series, latest trend, program, etc.
Level 4: Reproducing—These churches are characterized by the value and priority they place on starting new churches—they have a strong programmatic emphasis on it. These churches recognize the power of church planting and its effectiveness in reaching new people for Jesus. Level 4 churches have an “our fruit grows on other people’s trees” mindset, with a vision to extend their impact by launching new congregations. These churches sometimes experience a tension between sustaining their existing congregation and the energy needed for church planting.
Level 5: Multiplying—These churches are characterized by a culture of multiplying disciples and churches. This cultural DNA of multiplication is so deeply embedded that it has been said one would need a strategy to stop multiplication. A Level 4 church that plants churches that plant churches to the fourth generation becomes a Level 5 church. The seeds of movement are ripe. They reach non-Christians at a much higher rate of conversion than other churches. They see making disciplemakers as a cultural norm. Networks are established, and various ministries and nonprofits are birthed to extend the impact of the gospel for community transformation.
With this in mind, we are excited to release our second Becoming Five Multiplication Study in collaboration with Lifeway Research and sponsored by Thrivent, which measures where churches land on the Five Levels of Multiplication. While the results are mixed, some encouraging signs point to the resilience of churches in the midst of challenging times.
The reality is that numerically not much has shifted over the past five years since the initial Becoming Five Multiplication Study was conducted in 2019. The percentage of Level 4 (reproducing) and Level 5 (multiplying) churches remains steady at 7%. While this may feel like slow progress, it’s important to recognize that holding steady is a testament to the faithfulness of churches committed to multiplication.
Considering everything that has unfolded over the past five years, maintaining the percentage of Level 4 and Level 5 churches at 7% is no small achievement. The pandemic brought unprecedented challenges—church closures, the rapid shift to online services, isolation from communities, political divisiveness, and the ongoing uncertainty that disrupted every aspect of ministry. Most of the church planting networks across the country went on hold for 24 months, focusing on their local churches.
Many pastors and church leaders faced emotional burnout, physical exhaustion and relational strain, all while navigating the spiritual needs of their congregations. For example, Barna’s The State of Pastors, Volume 2 research reveals that as high as 42% of pastors have considered stepping away from ministry entirely, with far too many wrestling with mental health crises.
Over the past five years, ministry leaders have overcome significant challenges, staying focused on the 16% Mission. The dedication of thousands of churches to be Level 4 or Level 5 is a milestone worth celebrating. Now, it’s time to look ahead and focus on the opportunities before us.
Growth on the Horizon
It was only 10 years ago when Exponential learned from our own study and investigation that approximately 4% of churches in North America were at Level 4 or Level 5. The fact that the percentage of churches at these levels grew to 7% and has remained steady is good news when you consider this represents approximately 25,000 more churches contributing to the 16% Mission in the last decade.
Not only that, Warren Bird, who serves as senior vice president of research at the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability (ECFA) and as an Outreach contributing editor, found in his research on The New Faces of Church Planting and Multisiting that “43% of churches planted in the last five years are saying that part of their vision for the future is a multiplying network.” That means more than 6,000 new churches in the last five years are pursuing becoming a multiplying church.
Another encouraging sign of multiplication growth is that new expressions of church are emerging, often in surprising and unconventional places, including microchurches and other innovative formats designed to reach increasingly diverse subcultures. These exciting new forms represent a significant development in church planting, but many of them are not captured in traditional research. There’s an undercurrent of acceleration that’s not always visible on the larger stage because these new churches don’t fit the traditional mold: many lack full-time staff to answer phones, websites to send a contact form, or other conventional means of gathering research data.
A leading example of this is the rise of microchurches—small, grassroots faith communities designed for disciple making and multiplication—which are reshaping how people engage with faith. Two pace-setting networks, the Tampa Underground and the Kansas City Underground, now mobilize over 150 and nearly 100 microchurches, respectively. They span a variety of contexts, for example, some are geographically focused, while others are centered around people groups and special interests.
In 2022, the inaugural Microchurch Conference in Gainesville, Florida, drew over 400 in-person attendees, with nearly 200 more participating online. Fast-forward two years to April 2024, and the second conference saw attendance surge to almost 750 in person and over 300 online. And here’s what’s really exciting: The in-person attendees represented more than 300 distinct networks, each launching a growing number of microchurches reaching out to their communities in ways that don’t always show up in our research.
These microchurch networks are just the tip of the iceberg. We are also seeing other unique expressions begin to emerge in approaches like:
* The Brook, a disciple-making community for young professionals in urban Denver, using a media-to-movement model. They build relationships with people online and invite them to in-person events like conferences, community nights and sporting events in order to build genuine relationships where evangelism and discipleship emerge. Out of these connections, The Brook birthed simple churches that convene over 500 young professionals. (Learn more at TheBrook.city.)
* Corner Church in Minneapolis, Minnesota, combines church planting with community-focused businesses in urban areas, addressing the challenge of engaging people outside the Christian subculture. For example, they’ve launched four Corner Coffee locations where they serve hundreds of people every day, and gather for worship every Sunday. (Learn more at Corner.church.)
* Faith City Church Network, also in Minnesota, is committed to planting churches in impoverished communities along with grocery stores to address social, physical and spiritual needs. Through urban training and coaching, they have deployed five church planters and developed competencies for starting missional communities. They are now planting two new churches in St. Paul, Minnesota—one in a neighborhood and another in the county jail. (Learn more at https://www.facebook.com/FCCDaytonsbluff/.)
Each of these expressions of Christian community is reaching unique demographics of people that are often overlooked and underserved by traditional faith communities. Along with more traditional-model churches, it will take these kinds of new and innovative forms of church to see the 16% Mission fulfilled.
What Your Church Can Do
Is your church ready to take the next step in advancing the 16% Mission? Here are three impactful ideas to get started:
1. Start a church-planting residency. Invest in young leaders by equipping them to plant or lead a church. Develop future leaders in your congregation by identifying those with a passion for ministry and leadership potential. Start small with one or two apprentices, offering structured mentorship, practical experience and theological education. Use affordable resources like online courses or collaborate with other churches to share costs. (This is where the relational micro-networks we mentioned above can be a game changer.) Provide hands-on opportunities, such as leading small groups or gatherings, and celebrate the apprentices’ growth by commissioning them into future ministry roles.
2. Invest in church planting. Prioritizing church planting in your church’s budget can have a profound impact on advancing the kingdom. According to research in the Becoming Five Multiplication Study, many churches are already leading the way in this effort. Significantly, 81% of church planting funds come directly from tithes and contributions to the church’s main budget, showing how existing generosity can support these initiatives. Additionally, 54% of churches raised separate funds specifically designated for planting new congregations, while 59% of church planters obtained funds from donors within their church.
Churches face real challenges when it comes to giving more to church planting. For many, funding church plants competes with existing commitments to missionaries (65%), ministries (79%) and their denomination or network (75%). Additionally, over a quarter (27%) struggle to meet their own monthly expenses. These barriers remind us that supporting church planting requires prayer, intentionality and a commitment to prioritize kingdom multiplication.
To see forward momentum, consider setting an ambitious goal: Dedicate a 1% increase of your church’s annual budget to church planting, or include an initiative for church planting in your next capital campaign. By taking this step, you can inspire your congregation to invest in spreading the gospel and building new communities of faith.
3. Equip emerging generations. Some of our Exponential team, along with their kids, recently returned from the Passion 2025 conference, where two waves of 20,000 college-age students gathered with a shared mission: to bring glory to Jesus. While some may question the commitment of this emerging generation, we are deeply encouraged by what we’re witnessing. Movements like Passion and other collaborative efforts are a testament to the bright future of the church.
Now is the time to prioritize young leaders. Empower them to dream boldly and equip them to turn those dreams into reality. By offering disciple making and church planting training, we can inspire the rising generation of church leaders to reimagine ministry in transformative new ways. The future of the church is filled with promise, and it starts with investing in the next generation. We believe the next generation will complete the 16% Mission.
What You Can Do
You can also personally be a catalyst for the 16% Mission. It doesn’t take a large platform, big budget or other capabilities we often feel like we are missing. God has already given you what you need. Here’s how you can personally move forward:
1. Make disciple makers. Start personally discipling 2–3 individuals with the vision of equipping them to disciple others. Disciple making is where multiplication begins.
2. Apprentice a new leader. Identify someone in your church or ministry who can be trained and empowered to lead.
3. Join a network. Form or join a relational micro-network of local pastors to collaborate, share vision and catalyze church multiplication together. Prioritize being friends on mission who are deep in relationship and reaching your city together.
It’s In You.
There is power in simply making yourself available to the Spirit of God. We are constantly hearing stories of everyday Christ followers who are making a significant impact in new and fresh ways. One of those stories comes from Rick Bolle, a friend who is in my (Dave) small group at the church where I pastor, Community Christian Church. For several years Rick has had a huge heart for kids with special needs and their families.
He came to an Exponential conference where he was challenged with the idea that God is simply looking for everyday people who make themselves available. He was taught you don’t need to have a building or money or formal education, you just need to be available.
“Dave, I’m available,” Rick said.
“Available to do what?”
With conviction he told me he wanted to start an all-abilities church, a community for kids with special needs and their families.
Leaning into his excitement I said, “Let’s do it.”
Within just a few months, we guided Rick through a simple training pathway while he pulled together people he had befriended over the years within the special needs community.
I’ll never forget the first time that church gathered. It was two years ago, on a Sunday evening, in the gym of one of our facilities. Over 110 individuals with special needs, along with those who love and support them, gathered to form a church. Rick’s church may not resemble a traditional congregation, but its impact on the kingdom is extraordinary. Through his willingness to hear from God, making himself available, and bringing Jesus to a community often overlooked, Rick has started something truly transformative. And you can too.
