• Different types of new people. Transfers—people who came from other congregations of the same denomination—are the largest group of newcomers across all churches. In declining churches, about half of new worshipers (46%) come as transfers. However, growing and stable churches draw in fewer transfers than declining churches. In contrast, growing churches attract three times more first-timers—those who have never attended anywhere—than declining churches (see Figure 7.2).
• People strongly focused on the church’s future. Congregations thrive when a vision of what they can do drives their mission. They refuse to allow past or present circumstances to control their dreams. Superfocused on their future, these congregations attract committed worshipers who are excited about their involvement. Growing congregations include higher percentages of worshipers who place their bet on a hope-filled tomorrow than stable or declining churches.
Organizational Dynamics: What About Size, Theology, or Location?
Now we turn to organizational dynamics that relate to numerical growth: church size and theological orientation. We also target another important dimension that operates outside the congregation’s direct control—the church’s geographic location.
Size of the congregation. While other organizational aspects are stronger predictors of growth, church size does play a small role. Larger churches are more likely to report that they have grown. Why might that be? First, larger churches make a bigger target for those seeking a new church; they are easier to find. Second, larger churches typically offer more ministries and programs, meet in more modern facilities, and host an electronic presence (such as an appealing Web site). Combined, these characteristics make large churches a powerful draw for potential worshipers.
Recent studies document churchgoers’ increasing concentration within very large churches—often, nondenominational Protestant churches.(4) However, larger churches face challenges not experienced by smaller churches—for example, more “free riders.” Just like people who use public transportation without paying the fare, some worshipers take advantage of the church’s programs without investing their time or money in return.(5) Larger churches also must address higher attrition rates and create innovative avenues for assimilating the many newcomers.(6)
Faith tradition or theology. Roughly equal percentages of congregations (about half) grow in all three faith groups. We found no statistically significant difference for growth among the three faith traditions included in our analyses. However, the factors behind church growth vary by the church’s faith tradition. In other words, the things that fuel Catholic parish growth differ from what makes a mainline Protestant or conservative Protestant church attractive to new worshipers. For example, geographically defined Catholic parishes often experience growth from the influx of new immigrants who are already Catholic.
Another drum that scholars beat regarding church growth relates to theological orientation. The conservative-liberal theological continuum runs within all faith traditions. Some mainline Protestant churches attract members and leaders with liberal views, while other churches in the same denomination attract worshipers who hold a conservative orientation. Some argue that theologically conservative congregations are more likely to grow.(7) Others argue as loudly that more theologically liberal congregations are growing.(8) Our empirical research reveals little or no evidence that this single factor influences numerical growth.
Church growth is complex. Any religious leader or consultant who plays a “trump card”—focusing on [em]one[/em] key factor that he or she believes causes growth or church vitality—plays with a losing hand. Theological orientation simply does not matter as much as some wish to believe. If we scale back the theology lens, perhaps congregational leaders can concentrate on what matters: Does the congregation’s ministry focus fit its strengths and the community’s needs?
Location, location, location. Congregations take on views and ways of explaining reality that relate to their geographic location.(9) A congregation’s location script helps answer essential questions: Who are we? What is our mission in this place? As part of that script, many worshipers and leaders assume that location determines whether the church can grow or not.
