As the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris intensifies, new research from the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University, led by Dr. George Barna, indicates that millions of Christians are unlikely to vote.
Barna says this election season is marked by a significant drop in voter enthusiasm, particularly among Christian voters who have historically been key players in determining the outcome of presidential races. According to the research, only 51% of “people of faith” are likely to vote this November.
The results also revealed that large numbers of Christian churches have distanced themselves from the election, refusing to even encourage congregants to vote and avoiding teaching related to many of the key social issues on which the election may hinge.
“I see two huge take-aways from this blockbuster report,” said Len Munsil, president of Arizona Christian University. “First, that Christians could be the deciding factor in a bunch of federal and state races and are choosing not to be. And second, that they are longing for their local church to instruct them on how to think biblically about policy and politics. They don’t want to be told how to vote, but they do want to know why they should vote, and how to view political issues from a biblical framework.
“The Bible teaches us in Proverbs 29:2 that ‘when the righteous are in authority, the people rejoice; but when a wicked man rules, the people groan.'” Munsil said. “But without pastors willing to speak about the Bible’s perspective on policy issues, and without them encouraging Christians to vote, it’s hard to see how we can have the kind of godly government that would enable our people to rejoice.”
The Christian Voter Gap: A Game-Changer
The Cultural Research Center defines “people of faith” as anyone who identifies with a recognized religion, such as Christianity, Judaism, Mormonism or Islam. While 66% of voting-age adults identify as Christian, only half (51%) of all “people of faith” are expected to vote. This translates to 104 million people who are likely to sit out the 2024 election—41 million of whom are born-again Christians and 32 million regular churchgoing Christians.
“In 2020, the gap between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden was just seven million votes. The real story lies in the margins of victory in swing states, where an average of 60,000 votes per state determined nearly 40% of the electoral votes needed to win,” Barna emphasized. “In this context, the 32 million regular churchgoers who won’t vote in 2024 is a gamechanger.”
Why Christians Aren’t Voting
The research pinpointed several reasons why Christians are stepping away from the voting booth:
- 68% lack interest in politics and elections
- 57% dislike all major candidates
- 55% feel none of the candidates reflect their most important views
- 52% believe their vote will not make a difference
- 48% think the election results will be manipulated
For Barna, these statistics reflect a deeper crisis of disengagement and distrust. “A lack of confidence in the process, frustration with the choices, and a general apathy toward the political sphere have left millions of believers on the sidelines,” he explained.
What Would Encourage Christians to Vote?
Despite their resistance, the survey explored possible scenarios that might inspire non-voters to cast a ballot. However, none of the options presented, including receiving encouragement from family or friends or believing their vote could sway the results, moved even one in five of these non-voters.
Interestingly, the data shows that if their church taught that voting is a biblical responsibility, one out of six likely non-voters would reconsider.
